Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 3.279907 3.924350 4.643230 5.501843 6.496544 7.609653 8.946439
2025-04-27 2.318848 3.172716 4.237494 5.649640 7.458364 9.681023 12.600482
2025-05-04 1.758705 2.702091 3.995324 5.865633 8.462912 11.898176 16.731979
2025-05-11 1.330161 2.270080 3.672146 5.858936 9.112493 13.688594 20.502207
2025-05-18 0.990558 1.867249 3.282200 5.646734 9.388908 14.944913 23.633314
2025-05-25 0.735876 1.526877 2.902894 5.355311 9.462710 15.866206 26.326972
2025-06-01 0.583547 1.321986 2.696509 5.290297 9.854646 17.276174 29.859212
2025-06-08 0.467337 1.152527 2.512974 5.221621 10.211162 18.641878 33.424844
2025-06-15 0.414794 1.099240 2.533666 5.518833 11.226564 21.174277 39.092452
2025-06-22 0.346941 0.992767 2.425630 5.548113 11.751783 22.910635 43.564102
2025-06-29 0.289516 0.894040 2.312386 5.544176 12.204997 24.550113 47.990865
2025-07-06 0.241235 0.803729 2.198154 5.516197 12.600338 26.109763 52.389166
2025-07-13 0.225650 0.799813 2.287755 5.952771 13.998625 29.688408 60.788945
2025-07-20 0.197636 0.752164 2.263569 6.133845 14.898017 32.415844 67.866110
2025-07-27 0.176118 0.717452 2.264974 6.374340 15.951257 35.533306 75.917954
2025-08-03 0.148202 0.652005 2.171085 6.370134 16.468825 37.633641 82.184102
2025-08-10 0.117941 0.566042 1.999947 6.142790 16.454104 38.649262 86.406985
2025-08-17 0.091323 0.481192 1.809709 5.829327 16.194524 39.123594 89.575641
2025-08-24 0.075589 0.432455 1.716752 5.759417 16.502097 40.819272 95.336181
2025-08-31 0.062510 0.388689 1.628274 5.685472 16.788059 42.487177 101.151962
2025-09-07 0.058334 0.384717 1.673163 6.005634 18.102800 46.533625 112.234846
2025-09-14 0.050035 0.356068 1.624336 6.037171 18.674772 48.946499 119.978135
2025-09-21 0.042497 0.327205 1.567126 6.032933 19.151237 51.176408 127.469801